A $787 billion "economic recovery" package has already provided a stimulus to one of the bellwether contests on Colorado's 2010 election calendar.

Out on the eastern plains, would-be Republican challengers are wasting no time taking digs at rookie Rep. Betsy Markey, D-Fort Collins, for casting one of her first big "yea" votes in favor of President Barack Obama's landmark domestic initiative.

The collection of new spending and tax cuts is meant to spur new jobs nationwide and in hard-hit places such as Markey's sprawling, conservative-leaning district, which covers the grassy right half of Colorado's map.

But Republicans portray the legislation as a boondoggle of historic proportions, and they claim Markey's support goes against the fiscally conservative values of a district that has sent budget hawks such as Hank Brown, Wayne Allard and Bob Schaffer to Congress in the past.

Will the charge stick? It's way too early to tell, political analysts say.

But the terms of the 2010 debate began taking shape with that stark, partisan vote, making it more likely the newcomer's political fortunes will rise or fall with the president's popularity - and the state of the Main Street economy.

"Well, I think people will be looking at that, but at this point, I'm really not taking that into consideration. I'm just trying to do my job," Markey said in a phone interview last week, while she was barnstorming through southeastern Colorado to explain the legislation to local, county and school district officials.

"The vast majority of them are Republican. This is a conservative district," Markey said of the far-flung 4th District. "But they know help is needed, that we cannot just allow (ourselves) to do nothing. That is reckless behavior if we would just let the economy continue in a downward spiral.

"I mean, I think that is a fiscally irresponsible thing to do. The government needs to take action. This is bold action. I think we are in a situation where the cost of doing nothing is huge."

On the hunt

But some of Markey's would-be opponents already have pounced, echoing arguments made by Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives who unanimously opposed the new president's first major domestic initiative.

"I don't view it as 'stimulus.' I view it as 'pork,' " said University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero, of Loveland, who formed an exploratory committee in December. "All we've done with this particular bill is expand the size, shape and scope of government . . . I think the district is still fiscally conservative. This flies in the face of the values of the 4th CD."

"If Betsy Markey thought record government spending was going to help the economy, every American would already be living in a mansion with five Corvettes in the garage," said state Rep. Cory Gardner, who plans to make an announcement about a potential candidacy "soon."

"The 4th CD is a common-sense district that wants people to represent them in a fiscally responsible manner, and Congresswoman Markey's first big challenge was a complete failure of fiscal responsibility," Gardner said.

There's no shortage of Republicans considering the race. Fort Collins Councilman Diggs Brown, currently serving overseas with the Colorado National Guard, told the Fort Collins Coloradoan that he will consider entering the race later this year.

Three other Republicans who are frequently mentioned - state Sen. Greg Brophy, state Sen. Kevin Lundberg and former state Treasurer Mark Hillman - said last week they will sit out the contest.

Brophy, who threw his support behind Gardner, said the stimulus vote links Markey at the hip with the president and Washington Democrats.

Another potential contender, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, has not made any decisions about whether to seek the congressional seat, an assistant said Friday.

"To be a Democrat and hold a seat that Republicans traditionally hold, you can't be seen as a typical Washington liberal siding with Obama and Pelosi and Reid," Brophy said. "Now we've got proof from her very first vote that she's going to side with the left."

Ties that bind

Markey has plenty of time to show her independence, but if Republicans portray her as bosom buddies with the Democratic president, it wouldn't be a novel strategy. In 2008, liberals attacked Marilyn Musgrave - the incumbent Markey ousted - by circulating a famous photo of outgoing President George W. Bush giving the Fort Morgan Republican a kiss on the head.

The difference: Bush's approval rankings were in the tank at the time, and for the moment Obama still appears popular - with a 60 percent approval rating overall and 62 percent approval from independents in last week's Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey.

"The popularity of the stimulus package, whether it works or not, is very much tied up in the popularity of President Obama," said Republican consultant Katy Atkinson. "Even if it doesn't work, if he maintains close to the approval level he has now, I don't know that it hurts people in targeted seats like Betsy Markey."

But history shows that a new president's party usually plays more defense than offense in the first midterm congressional elections after the inauguration. In fact, the new president's party has gained seats in those elections only twice since 1862 - 1934 and 2002.

"If the economy stays bad and there's no hope in sight, no light at the end of the tunnel, that's a problem," Atkinson said. "If people become disillusioned with (Obama), that will bleed over into every member of his party."

University of Northern Colorado political science professor Steve Mazurana, a Democrat, said he doesn't view the stimulus vote as a make-or-break litmus test for Markey. But he does think the 2010 economic conditions, combined with other votes and her work back in the district, could decide her chances with district voters.

The 4th District has 36,000 more Republicans than Democrats and almost a third of all voters are unaffiliated.

"The way I see it, most people think Markey is smart," Mazurana said. "And they're hopeful she will cast votes that will get them out of a doldrums."

4th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Active voter registration

Republican: 139,967, 39.3 percent

Unaffiliated: 111,038, 31.2 percent

Democrat: 103,096, 28.9 percent

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